CS:GO RaidCall EMS One SPring Finals - Intro
by Paul 'ReDeYe' Chaloner
In the space of a few days and four maps, we found out that Ninjas in Pyjamas really are human after all. It puts a slightly different spin on the upcoming RaidCall EMS One Spring finals as if the Swedish juggernaut had rolled in to town with another tournament chalked up and extended the map count run to more than 90 in the process, all we'd be talking about is the same shit we've been talking about for the last six months – Who the hell can beat NiP?
Luckily for us, we can talk about other things in the lead up to the last 8 playoffs. Like how will NiP bounce back? Can VeryGames finally take a tournament win with the Swedes in attendance now they broke their duck in England last week? Can k1ck put together more than just a single shock win and get past the World Champions? Does fnatic really have the easy side of the draw and can they take their first major offline win? Will the Brits finally deliver what they have promised for many months and get past not only VeryGames, but NiP too? Can n!faculty deliver a credible perfomance offline for the first time since ESWC last year or is the onliner tag justified?
First up, the draw. Some have argued there should be group stages and I hear you. It seems harsh to send eight teams all the way to Germany for one game (if they lose), but these eight teams already played in the group stages online, this is the single elimination part of it and if you are honest, when was the last time you actually enjoyed the stream roller, processional bore-fests of group games anyway?
The next thing is the actual draw of the teams. Some have said it's unfair. I'm not sure how exactly, the draw was made randomly with no team who won their group in the playoffs set against any other winners. Thus, the draw is entirely based from form on the whole season of play and in particular the results in the playoff group stages, which themselves were based on seeds from the entire season! Sure, it seems unfortunate to have Anexis, VeryGames and NiP all in one side of the draw, but that shit happens when you get so many awesome teams left in the competition, though I can sympathise with Sam and the boys for having to get past two of the top three strongest CS:GO teams in the world, just to get to the final, especially after they keep drawing them in other cups and in earlier rounds of the RaidCall EMS One cups this season.
Before we get in to the teams, the other thing to address is the prize money. Let's be honest, $35,000 is an awesome amount of money for a regular season finals, especially as this is just the first of FOUR of these in 2013 alone. The distribution could be better, perhaps, at least according to the community, but guess what? The players I spoke to have all agreed it's better to have it spread around more than have a ridiculous top 3 only. Sure, I get it, a higher top prize looks cool and perhaps makes the final more intense, but it doesn't lead to a healthy set of teams all chasing three spots, especially when so many teams (outside NiP and VP perhaps) can all beat each other.
Finally, don't forget that ESL paid travel compensation to get the teams to the event too. That shouldn't be underestimated either, it's a five figure sum after all.
NiP vs. k1ck
So the teams. The stand out number one still, despite the defeat by Virtus Pro is NiP. They come in to this tournament, potentially even more determined now the pressure is off them for going on the longest undefeated run in CS history. Now they are more dangerous, more deadly than ever before and if they are underestimated in any way, they will crush all three teams they need to face to win this Spring cup. That winning mentality doesn't go away after one or two defeats. They also face an “easy” first round game against ESC Gaming's late replacements k1ck, though the Portuguese shouldn't be underestimated either with notable wins against Dignitas, Anexis, ESC Gaming and Temp in the last six weeks. The problem for k1ck recently has been not that they can't hold themselves against top teams, but they seem to run out of steam early. A great win over a big team is often followed by a defeat to a team many would expect to see them beat, though with Ricardo “fox” Pacheco in the team, perhaps it isn't too hard to explain this odd phenomenon.
Not to deride the rest of the team, but in almost no other top 16 team right now, does one man carry his team as much as fox does. His quick thinking, stunning aim and ridiculous flicks
has helped them out of more than one tight rabbit hole (ok, enough of the fox puns) over the last few months. If only they could find him someone to lean on in the team more often, k1ck might just find themselves a top 8 European team.
Their decision to take up the spot, knowing they had to face NiP in the first round is worthy of applauding, knowing as they do they are heading for almost certain defeat after a 2000 mile trip. But with fox on form, there is always hope and if they get off to a good start, who knows what they might produce. That said, the logical side of my brain says this match will end with a comfortable 2-0 to NiP, anything else would be the biggest shock of the tournament.
Anexis vs. VeryGames
In the same half of the draw, Anexis meet VeryGames for the right to face NiP in the semi finals. It's odd to report they have only met once in CS:GO so far and that came last weekend at the Madcatz Birmingham event where the Brits won 16-12 on Dust 2. Thats not to say the two teams players don't know each other extremely well after their constant struggles in CS:S over the years, but despite the similarity of line ups, this is a new game and that means a new order. At least that's what Sam “Rattlesnk” Gawn will be hoping.
The early news is good for the brits following their defeat of the eventual winners of Madcatz Birmingham, but that in itself also tells a story. While Anexis won the battle, VeryGames won the war by taking the entire tournament. Anexis left floundering after the group stage, though some will point to them having a stand-in as one of the reasons for their inconsistency.
So often the nearly men of CS:GO so far, even as far back as Dreamhack Winter last year when they were monikored as mousesport, often touted as the only team capable of beating NiP (which is pretty much how we have ranked teams in the last six months) they have never quiet fulfilled that potential, despite several close results with the Swedes, always falling a round or two short, so perhaps this tournament provides them with the opportunity to finally rise above VeryGames (for sure) and take the fight to NiP. Although their line up has changed again (prb is out, hughesy is in again) it's not like they don't know how each other plays and you can bet they will be ready for the huge challenge which lays ahead of them.
VeryGames on the other hand, have reason to be confident, fresh from their first non-French offline tournament win(even if NiP and VP weren't there), they have finally shaken off the mantel of perennial runners up. The defeat by Anexis during Madcatz Birmingham is possibly the only worry they have heading in to the RaidCall EMS One lan finals, but even if they manage to over turn the Brits, they'll likely face their arch nemesis NiP in the semi finals. Eleven times the two have met in CS:GO and eleven times, the Swedes have come out on top, so if you are looking for a French revolution in Germany this weekend, you might be best off putting money elsewhere. Unlike Anexis, anything other than a semi final finish will be seen as a failure for the Belgian-Franco VG.
In the other half of the bracket, there is a clear favourite in fnatic, but to rule out the other three without thinking about it would be foolish. Amongst the other four teams is a mix of old 1.6 legends, CS:S stars still to prove they have what it takes in GO and teams who have failed miserably offline, but excelled online in 2013.
n!faculty vs. Absolute Legends
While the undoubted favourite to reach the final is fnatic with their star studded mix of old, new, 1.6 and CS:S stars, the most dangerous team in this side of the bracket is likely to be German side n!faculty. After some stunning online results, they're offline play has been poor and turning up on home soil with a favourable draw against a side who have replaced two players (twice in the last two weeks) means that they have their best chance of making the top 4 since ESWC last year. They are hungry too and well aware they haven't achieved their potential offline for some time.
Their Swedish opponents however can count themselves lucky to reach this stage at all and a win for them would be classed as nothing short of incredible, but they have the experience and the players to do it, especially if n!faculty start slow and some of the recent form offline starts to haunt them again. While the Swedes scraped in to 16th place in the rankings to get in to the playoffs and then got lucky in the playoffs with two new pickups (who arent even at the offline finals!), n!faculty can also count themselves fortunate too, especially with 3DMAX failing during the playoffs, allowing a much easier ride in to the last 8.
One other factor not to be overlooked is that Absolute Legends have, effectively left their organisation, so a good showing here could help all five players find new homes. It should also be noted that bringing in Spitfire and emilio looks good on paper, but often it takes more than a week in a lan centre to gel.
It's very much a 50-50 call on this one, but I'll go with the Germans to make the semi finals, but it'll be a 3 mapper and could really go either way on the day.
Imaginary vs. fnatic
The last quarter final also features a team with an inconsistent roster. French side Imaginary Gaming take on fnatic and while most (including me) will have written off the French before they even arrive in Cologne to take on the mighty fnatic, they have a couple of things going for them, which makes them less of a walkover than perhaps they look on paper.
Firstly, fnatic are still very erratic, on or offline. At Mad Catz, they struggled to overcome some of the smaller teams in the competition and even after reaching the final, lost without much of a fight to French side VeryGames. They joined the RaidCall EMS One Cup season relatively late though dominated parts of it to ensure qualification, but still looked fragile at times. The standout player in the last month is possibly not the one you would expect, but it's hard to find a more in form player in CS:GO right now than stingeR. He's a player from both of the previous versions of the game, though possibly more well known for his outstanding CS:S play, but whatever his pedigree and no matter how odd it looks to see him in a fnatic shirt (at least to me!), there is no doubt he is one of the top 10 players in the game right now and fnatic need big games from him during the finals.
By contrast, Imaginary Gaming, huffed and puffed their way through qualification without really setting the world alight, although a notable early win over VeryGames in Cup 2 virtually guaranteed their spot in the playoffs. Possibly even more so than fnatic, imG rely on their star player shoxie to come up with the goods and looking at stats alone, it's not hard to see just how far ahead of his team mates, Richard really is. If he is on form, they have a chance, but they'll need a slice of luck and it will depend on which version of fnatic turns up.
The likely result is a 2-0 for fnatic, but should Imaginary Gaming sneak a win, they could even find themselves in the final as n!faculty or Absolute Legends would both pose beatable opponents for them.
It's impossible to look much past NiP for the winners cheque and indeed, hard to see much past a NiP v fnatic final, but for the gamblers out there, a little flutter on n!faculty might be worthwhile or the highly talented (but also very inconsistent) Anexis.